Pigskin Addiction

By Phil Taylor

First things first, I hate the term “sleeper.” If you’re a fantasy player with more than one synapse firing inside your cavernous dome then you’ve done your homework and you already know who these guys are. This column is for you single synapse guys out there. This is a list of 10 guys I expect to exceed expectations and their draft positions, providing you with exceptional value in the later rounds.

1. Gordon Beckham, 3B/2B/SS, Chicago White Sox- This Beckham will likely do better on the field but worse in the marriage department than the soccer player with whom he shares a surname. Normally a .270 BA with 14 HR’s and 63 RBI’s wouldn’t garner attention on draft day but those are what Beckham put up after getting called up two months into the season. With his multi-position eligibility and a full season to rake, Beckham could prove to be one of the most valuable infielders in this year’s draft.

2. Chris Davis, 1B/3B, Texas Rangers- Davis is the ultimate fantasy tease. His power is Ruthian but he strikes out as often as Michael Vick trying to pick up chicks at a PETA convention. At least that’s the impression most fantasy owners have, and with good reason. But…did anyone notice that after his Mendoza-like B.A. got him demoted to the minors he came back in September and hit .318 for the month? If he can carry a respectable average over 150 games, 30 homers is not out of the question.

3. Clay Buchholz, SP, Boston Red Sox- Though it seems like we hear Buchholz’s name as a rising star every year, he is only 25 and this may finally be the season he puts it all together and nails down a permanent spot in the Red Sox rotation. His innings and experience have gradually increased since his debut in 2007. His ERA was 4.21 last season and he posted roughly a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Remember, this is a guy who threw a no-hitter as a 22 year old. He still has that talent. Don’t forget him on draft day.

4. Angel Pagan, CF, N.Y. Mets- In addition to having the most ironic name ever, Angel Pagan also has the Mets centerfield job until Carlos Beltran returns approximately 8 weeks into the season. With a good showing Pagan could shift to left field after Beltran’s return. He hit over .300 in 343 at bats last season and provides some speed on the basepaths, having racked up 14 steals in 88 games last year.

5. Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies- Halladay a sleeper? Hear me out. Halladay is a sleeper for the NL CY Young and MVP. I hate drafting pitchers early. Hate it with the white hot intensity of a thousand suns. They only help my team once every 5 days. But this is different. All Halladay has done every year, in the American League, in the toughest division in baseball, is show up, strike out 200, and win about 20 games. Every year. It’s like he’s a robot. I also believe that he’s mute. Has anyone ever heard or read a quote from him? Against NL lineups with an actual major league offense behind him, Halladay will dominate in every statistical category. Pick this mute robot, put him in your lineup and relax for the next 6 months.

6. Matt Thornton, RP, Chicago White Sox- Thornton isn’t closing for Chicago, yet. Post All-Star break last year Bobby Jenks’ BAA (batting average against) ballooned as fast as his waistline. Thornton will start the year in middle relief, but his stuff is filthy and he’s got ‘future closer’ written all over him. If Jenks falters, or his legs can no longer support his gelatinous upper body, Thornton will never give that job back. Until that happens he’ll still give you plenty of quality innings, occasional wins and saves and phenomenal help in ERA and WHIP.

7. Miguel Montero, C, Arizona Diamondbacks- In fantasy baseball there are no stats for handling a staff well or being a good defensive catcher. Only a handful of backstops provide you with solid offensive help. Montero is one of those guys. His OBP, slugging and batting average have increased each of the last three seasons. On top of a solid average he should give you around 20 home runs and 80 RBI’s this season.

8. Drew Stubbs, OF, Cincinnati Reds- Speed kills. Speed changes the game. A routine ground ball is a threat when Stubbs is flying up the first baseline. A fielder rushes his throw to beat the speed demon and misses the mark. Suddenly a ground ball has turned into a man on second in scoring position. That’s what Stubbs will bring to the lead off position for the Reds this year. A routine slap single is a steal opportunity for the lightning quick Stubbs. A 50 steal season is not out of the question.

9. Brandon Morrow, SP, Seattle Mariners- Morrow put in 69 innings last season with an impressive 8.14 K/9 ratio. This year the Mariners have quietly assembled one of the best fielding teams in the majors and their pitching staff figures to reap the benefits. As a virtual rookie Morrow will get hit now and then, but inside spacious Safeco Field he has the defense to make him look very good.

10. Aroldis Chapman, SP, Cincinnati Reds- 95 mph is a really good fastball. 97 mph is phenomenal. How about 102 mph? That’s what the Cuban defector brings. On top of that his ability to change speed from that fastball to his changeup will have major league hitters off balance. He may start the season in the minors but his upside makes a late round flyer well worth the wait.

     If you’ve played fantasy baseball, then undoubtedly you have drafted a player or two that you were sure was going to provide you with superior stats that would be the key to winning your league. On the way to the title, however, something happened that you did not expect: your stud player/super sleeper/can’t miss prospect stunk the joint up to high heaven. Maybe he had a season ending injury, perhaps he was benched after several weeks or months of substandard play, whatever the reason, you can trace your team’s failure back to the mistake you made by drafting Player X. After you watched in horror as your team spiraled down the proverbial drain, you may have muttered, “You are now DEAD TO ME!” even as you vowed never to let that player populate your roster again. I know it has happened to me, and I will even confess, I have made the same mistake with a player over consecutive seasons, chalking up one year’s terrible performance to bad luck, only to be burned twice.
     Because I want to win every league I enter, I began to compile a DTM list a few seasons ago. Looking over that list before I draft, I feel confident that I am minimizing my risk by avoiding those players I can no longer trust, or simply loathe on a deeply personal level. Of course, such a list is dynamic, changing as players retire or simply fade away to minor league obscurity, while others take their place in the hall of infamy. To be sure, some players do redeem themselves, becoming fantasy zombies and arising from the dead to become useful pieces of the roster puzzle we all struggle with every season.
My current list looks like this:

Ben Sheets, SP, OAK
Vernon Wells, OF, TOR
Alex Rios, OF, CHW
Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL
Todd Helton, 1B, COL
Garrett Atkins, 1B/3B, BAL
Russell Martin, C, LAD
Mark Ellis, 2B, OAK
Francisco Liriano, SP, MIN
Alex Gordon, 3B, KC
J.J. Hardy, SS, MIN
Rafael Furcal, SS, LAD
Jhonny Peralta, SS, CLE
Alfonso Soriano, OF, CHC
Aaron Rowland, OF, SF
Milton Bradley, OF, SEA
Eric Byrnes, OF SEA
Lastings Milledge, OF, PIT
Elijah Duke, OF, WAS
Xavier Nady, OF, CHC
Travis Hafner, DH, CLE
Andruw Jones, DH, CHW
Vladimir Guerrero, DH, TEX
Jeff Weaver, P, FA
Brad Penny, SP, StL
Fausto Carmona, SP, CLE
Tom Gorzelanny, SP, CHC
Ian Snell, SP, SEA
Bobby Jenks, RP, CHW
Brad Lidge, RP, PHI

     At one time or another in my fantasy career each of these players has found his way onto my roster, with disastrous results. I wouldn’t draft one of these guys, even if I was playing in a 15 team AL-only or NL-only league with 30 roster spots. At least, until I see them play well for a whole season, without significant injury. Then, and only then, might the zombie rules come into play. Resurrection, or arising from the dead, however, is a rare occurrence and should never be an expected event.
If you play against me in a league, just know that you need never fear that I will steal any of the players from your draft queue, nor will I outbid you by using my FAAB to add one of these sorry excuses for baseball players to my team. You need not worry that my superior waiver position will deprive you of any of my DTM listers, you are free to take them and insert them into your lineup at your own risk.
Most of these players have a story to go behind their DTM status, but I will leave that for another article. Instead, I would ask that you let me know who you consider worth of DTM status, and maybe provide just a bit of explanation. Misery, as we all know, loves company.

© Ivar G. Anderson 2010

Expert Rankings  (Check out the FINAL standings)

You’ll NEVER guess who came in first place in Expert PRE-SEASON rankings for 2009?? That’s right Rick Arnold of Pigskinaddiction.com! It’s no coincidence that this happened and it’s not the first time it’s happened and it certainly will NOT be the last time. In 2007 we finished #1 in the pickhoo pre-season rankings and in 2008 on the NY Times Fifth Down column we finished 7th in over all rankings. Clearly we are the BEST kept secret on the damn Internet much to my frustration! The 2009 accuracy rankings were just published over on the Fantasy Football Librarian and we did okay this year against some of the big boys and came in 6th place in the running back rankings for 2009, beating sites like Football Guys, CBS Sports and Sports Illustrated! Our running back rankings are always the bomb!  For those that missed out on the 2009 Football draft guide, you can see what you missed as it’s now available for download at:  Pigskin Addiction

Another draft guide in the books! The guide ended up being 99 pages (damn it, just one page shy of 100!) I think it’s as good as or maybe even better than the Football Guide! (I can say that because I didn’t write it, Rick Arnold did and he had the #1 Fantasy Football rankings of 2009 according to the FFE Expert poll: (check the link: http://www.pigskinaddiction.com/2010/Football/2009FinalFFBRank.html)

We’ve got over 330 Players with stats, projections and write-ups! 100 of those are pitchers! 80 are Outfield! The Master Cheatsheet has been tested in some mocks and we LOVE IT! We’ve got 20 prospects you MUST check out and a ton of sleepers (3 pages of sleepers for you) and of course the busts….just a page of guys you should avoid on draft day!

The guide is available NOW right here: http://www.pigskinaddiction.com/2010/Baseball/10BBDGorderpage.html

Just hit the link and follow the instructions and wait for the re-direct on the receipt page! You’ll get more instructions, follow those and you’ll be good to go. If you have any problems please email me: munk@pigskinaddiction.com and I’ll get you what you need right away!

Thanks for checking out Pigskin Addiction! Please head back our way in May/Jun time frame for FREE Mock drafting! We’ve got our team working on it right now! Should be the best software around!

AFC Championship Game – Jets – 17 Colts – 30

This was a game for the first half….then the MVP of the league took over. The Jets jumped out to a 17-6 lead with a deep ball to Edwards and off the arm of the rookie Marc Sanchez but we all know the Jets are a running team and in the start of the 3rd quarter they lost Shonn Greene and that really spelled the end of the Jets.

Peyton Manning was near perfect, throwing for 377 yards and 3 touchdowns. Garcon and Collie stepped up and really had special games for the Colts, each going well over 100 yards and scoring. Reggie Wayne was shut down by Revis which we all figured he would be…the guy is a SHUT DOWN CORNER and going to be good in this league for a very long time.

The Colts go on to Super Bowl 44! But who will they play????? (clue…WHO DAT?!?!?!)

NFC Championship Game – Vikings – 28 New Orleans – 31 In Overtime!

Wow…for a while I thought nobody wanted to win this game! Tied at 14 at half time and then tied again 28-28 at the end of regulation. Truth be told the Vikings absolutely dominated this game in just about every stat column but the most important one…TURNOVERS! Adrian Peterson for all your gifts, you can’t hang on to the damn ball to save your life! The Vikings turned the ball over inside the 10 yard like of the Saints twice (FYI…you can’t do that and win) and then Harvin coughed up the ball inside their own 10 yard line and the Saints took full advantage.

In the end Favre did toss a costly interception with 19 seconds left that ultimately put the game into overtime and allowed the Saints to win. I do think the Refs took some liberties in the overtime with the pass interference call (that ball wasn’t catch able folks) and Robert Meachem let the ball hit the ground on the play they called a catch when in fact it wasn’t. However, my hat is off to the Saints for making the turnovers count! They are off to the Super Bowl and for Drew Brees and the City of New Orleans it’s a fantastic ending to a great season! Now….JUST WIN BABY!

Side Note – Brett Favre, does he come back? Favre took a BEATING today and he looks very tired, however you can see how much he loves this Vikings team and how much he believes in them. I will go on record now saying “Brett Favre plays the 2010-2011 season” You can quote me!

The 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide UPDATE:  It’s  nearly ready for the streets! Currently there are ZERO ads in this guide and it’s already up to 94 pages! It’s PACKED with Cheatsheets!  Auction Cheatsheets, AL/NL Cheatsheet, a Master Cheatsheet for redrafts, Dynasy Cheatsheets…we’ve Cheatsheeted you to death!

On top of that there are individual player write-ups with 3 years of stats plus our projections!  If you’ve got our Fantasy Football draft guide before you know this thing is going to be the Fantasy Baseball BIBLE! 

I can tell you right now it’ll be well over 100 pages, just chalked full of info! 

The Draft Guide will be available 1 Feb 2010 at http://www.pigskinaddiction.com

Cardinals – 14 Saints – 45

What a bad game for the Cardinals! I honestly thought this game would be high scoring for BOTH teams but not so much for Arizona. The Saints at home are going to be very tough to beat. Drew Brees tossed 3 TD’s and the Saints D knocked Warner the fork OUT! This really wasn’t a very good game competitively speaking. The Saints are just that much better, folks.

Ravens – 3 Colts – 20

This game was much closer than the score would indicate. How you ask? Really I think the Ravens let one get away here…they picked Manning several times only to either turn the ball back over or have it called back by penalty. Ray Rice fumbled and the Ravens turned the ball over four times. If Manning thought this D was tough wait till next week!

Dallas – 3 Minnesota – 34

Everyone’s a hater….calling the last TD by the Vikings “classless” I say had the Dallas defense done it’s JOB (you know the thing you get paid to do on Sundays) this wouldn’t be a hot topic. Yet the Cowboys D failed to stop Favre and the Vikes from lighting them the FORK UP! I also would ask how in the HELL Favre didn’t get a share of the MVP? 40 years old and he’s playing like he’s 25. The Vikings would have been 9-6 without Favre and home watching the playoffs instead of making a Super Bowl run. Sorry…it’s true.

San Diego – 14 Jets – 17

Are you kidding me? The Jets get into the playoffs because the Colts sat all their starters….and here comes KARMA! The Jets run the ball and play great defense and how many times over the history of the NFL have we seen teams that run the ball and play great D make a run like this? Answer….quite a few. The Chargers were the hottest team in the NFL…now they are home for the Super Bowl. Karma comes next week when the Jets visit the Colts and I have a feeling if Manning doesn’t play a perfect game he could be in trouble.

Three days after Lane Kiffin presented all of us with his “True Colors” and bailed on the Tennessee Football Program the Vols announce their new coach: Derek Dooley….WHO?   He’s the son of legendary coach Vince Dooley who coached at Georgia and brought a National Title to Georgia.

One thing I know for sure is this; the Tennessee Football Program is in better hands today than it was three days ago. Lane Kiffin was a mistake from day one. Derek Dooley is the right man to take over…he’s going to bring respectability back to this program, he brings integrity and he’s humble and these are all very good things.

Truth be told, Lane Kiffin should have had his ass kicked the night he walked out on that team and from what I’ve read he’s really lucky he got out of there in one piece. Taking a shot at him though, would have been sinking to his slimy level and that’s not what the Tennessee program is about. Coach Dooley probably has LESS experience as a head coach than Lane Kiffin and he certainly doesn’t have his legendary father with him at Tennessee like Lane did but he does come from a very good coaching blood line.

Dooley is known for his ability to recruit top classes…he did it at LSU under Saban and he’ll do it at Tennessee. The Vols program is now stable again and the kids that committed to the program already should know and their parents should know they are in good hands.

Folks,

Snake and I are working very hard on our 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide! It’s coming along great so far. We are on target for our 1 Feb 2010 Release date. It looks like we’ll hit 100 pages of info for you (We have 70 pages right now without counting any cheatsheets!) We have a SHIT ton of cheatsheets for you…from redraft to dynasty (with ages) to auction cheatsheets. We have player rankings with 3 years of stats and Snakes very colorful write-ups. (We have 100 pitchers written out with stats for you, 80 Outfield and so much more) Snake is going to bust a “pools” article just like we had in the Fantasy Football Draft Guide and there will be other articles. We also covered the top 20 prospects that you could see in the Majors this year and we’re working more and more material in daily! It’s going to be massive and a VERY good source of info for all your fantasy baseball drafts!

Just wanted to give everyone still reading a quick update…I’ll be back for more as we get closer to 1 Feb 2010!!!

One last note….we’re doing a MOCK DRAFT for the guide!  If you’d like to be part of that process please go hit the general forum on http://www.hogstrough.com  and get the details for signing up!  We have 8 spots open for a 12 team mock draft!  Please come join us and have some great fun!

Wow!  We all KNEW Big Mac took steroids but I never thought he would come clean about it.  Today he did just that!  Full disclosure to…Mark McGwire admitted he took Steroids on and off for a decade.  Officially steroids were on the “Banned” substance list since 1991 so yeah it was technically illegal.  MLB didn’t start drug testing until 2002-2003, long after Big Mac was retired.  Mark also admitted HGH use, but that really shouldn’t be counted against anyone.  HGH wasn’t ruled illegal until 2005!  Anyone who used HGH prior to that did it legally in the eyes of Baseball in my honest opinion.   I mean it’s not like we all didn’t know about HGH right?  It’s been around Since 1920.  

I hope now, that Big Mac has come clean and is back in Baseball that the Hall of Fame voters will give him a shot to get in and I’ll tell you why….after the last Baseball strike (94-95) the American people were sick and tired of it.  You had players making millions of dollars and playing for greed vs. love of the game.  I personally was done with Baseball and it’s always been one of my favorite sports.  In 1998 when Big Mac and Sammy Sosa went head to head for the single season homerun title EVERYONE in America stood up and watched baseball again just to see who would hit the next homerun.  If you ask me Mark McGwire saved Baseball at that point in time and that’s why he should get into the Hall of Fame.  Yeah, he took steroids but so did 85% of Major League Baseball at the time and how big is saving Baseball?  It’s HUGE!  Nothing else could have saved Baseball at that point in our history…it was at an all time low for attendance and TV ratings. 

 I’m glad Big Mac is back in Baseball…I’m glad he came clean and I hope St. Louis and the American people open their hearts and welcome back a guy who not only saved Baseball but mesmerized us all with his homeruns and his class.   We’re glad to have you back, Mac!